Odds Probability
Convert any odds into probability and reveal the bookmaker's hidden margin.
Odds Probabilities
3 Options (1X2)
Football — Draw possible
Team 1
Draw
Team 2
2 Options
Tennis, Basketball, BTTS, Over/Under, Handicap...
Team 1
Team 2
📚 Full guide
Odds and probabilities
Understanding what's really behind an odd
🎲What is an odd?▼
An odd is simply the inverse of a probability, multiplied by 1 to get back your stake.
Formula: implicit probability = 1 / odds
Odds 1.50 → prob = 1/1.50 = 66.67%
Odds 2.00 → prob = 1/2.00 = 50.00%
Odds 3.00 → prob = 1/3.00 = 33.33%
Odds 5.00 → prob = 1/5.00 = 20.00%
The higher the odds, the more the bookmaker considers the event improbable.
🎯Implicit vs real probability — the key▼
📊 Implicit probability (raw)
The direct calculation 1/odds. But beware: the sum of all outcomes always exceeds 100% because of the bookmaker's margin.
🎯 Real probability (normalized)
We remove the margin to bring the sum back to 100%. This is the bookmaker's true probability estimate (without its commission).
To compare with your own prediction, always use the real probability (the cyan one in the calculator).
💡A concrete example▼
Football match: PSG vs Marseille, odds 1.80 / 3.50 / 4.50.
Implicit probabilities (raw):
→ PSG: 1/1.80 = 55.56%
→ Draw: 1/3.50 = 28.57%
→ Marseille: 1/4.50 = 22.22%
Sum = 106.35% (> 100%)
The difference +6.35% is the bookmaker's margin — its commission to make money.
Real probabilities (normalized):
→ PSG: 55.56 / 106.35 = 52.24%
→ Draw: 28.57 / 106.35 = 26.87%
→ Marseille: 22.22 / 106.35 = 20.89%
Sum = 100% ✅
The bookmaker therefore estimates PSG has a 52.24% chance of winning — that's its true estimate.
⚖️RTP and bookmaker margin▼
The RTP (Return To Player) indicates the percentage redistributed by the bookmaker. 100% = no margin, 95% = 5% margin.
✅ Excellent (RTP ≥ 99%)
Very generous odds. Typical of PS3838/Pinnacle on major markets.
👍 Good (97-99%)
Normal margin of a competitive bookmaker on big markets.
⚠️ Average (94-97%)
High margin, typical of secondary markets (scorer, corners, cards).
❌ Poor (< 94%)
Very high margin. Avoid this market or look elsewhere.
🔢How to use this calculator▼
Choose the section according to your market: 3 options for football 1X2, 2 options for tennis/basketball/BTTS
Enter the odds offered by your bookmaker
Read the probabilities: implicit (raw) and real (without margin)
Look at the RTP and margin to assess the bookmaker's quality
Compare the real probability with your own prediction: if yours is higher, you potentially have a value
🎬When to use this tool?▼
🎯 Detect a value
If you estimate a team has a 60% chance of winning but the book's real probability is 50%, you have a value.
⚖️ Compare two bookmakers
The book with the highest RTP is the most generous. Switch books for odds that are too low.
📚 Learn probabilities
Understand what an odd really represents, beyond the simple multiplier.
🧮 Prepare an accumulator
Multiply the real probabilities to estimate the true probability of an accumulator.
Pro tips
📌 The real probability is always more accurate than the implicit one
📌 Pinnacle/PS3838 has the lowest margins → very accurate real probability
📌 Beware of RTPs < 95%: excessive margin
📌 Secondary markets (corners, cards) always have lower RTPs than 1X2
📌 To find a value, compare YOUR estimated probability to the book's REAL probability
📌 In an accumulator, multiply the real probabilities to estimate the true probability
📌 The more liquid the market (major matches), the more accurate the probabilities