Poisson Calculator
Estimate the probability of exact scores and goal markets via the Poisson distribution.
Poisson — Correct score
Enter each team's expected goals to estimate the probabilities.
Most likely scores
1-1
11.8%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
6.7%
Result (1X2)
Home win
49.0%
Draw
24.9%
Away win
26.2%
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Both score
53.2%
CalculaBet.com
📚 Guide
The Poisson method in football
Turning expected goals into probabilities
📊What is the Poisson distribution?▼
The Poisson distribution models the number of events (here, goals) occurring in a given interval, based on an expected average. In football, it estimates the probability of each exact score from each team's expected goals.
Expected goals (λ) are derived from stats: average goals scored, conceded, offensive and defensive strength. The more accurate it is, the more reliable the probabilities.
🧮The formula▼
P(k goals) = (λ^k × e^−λ) / k!
For each score (e.g. 2-1), multiply the probability the home team scores 2 by the probability the away team scores 1. Summing the scores gives 1X2, over/under and BTTS probabilities.
The model assumes both attacks are independent — a simplification, but a solid base for spotting value on score and goal markets.
Practical tips
📌 Compare a score's Poisson probability to the bookmaker's odds: if your probability implies lower odds, there may be value.
📌 The model shines on over/under and BTTS markets, more stable than exact score.
📌 Refine your expected goals with recent form and home advantage, not just season averages.