Value Bet Calculator
Detect the real value of a bet using the Pinnacle (PS3838) reference odds.
Value Bet Calculator
Over/Under, BTTS, Handicap, ML Tennis/Basketball
📊 PS3838 odds (Pinnacle)
🎯 Bookmaker odds (BO)
📚 Full guide
How to use the calculator
Everything you need to know to detect value bets
🎯What is a Value Bet?▼
A value bet is a bet where the odds offered by your bookmaker (Betclic, Unibet, Winamax...) are higher than the fair odds calculated mathematically. The bookmaker pays you more than the bet is actually worth.
This calculator compares your odds with PS3838 (Pinnacle), the global reference. Pinnacle has the lowest margins — its odds are the closest to the "true" probability.
📖Terms to know▼
BO (Bookmaker Odds)
The odds offered by your bookmaker that you want to evaluate.
Fair Odd
The theoretical odds without bookmaker margin. The "true" value of the bet.
RTP (Return To Player)
The % redistributed by the book. 100% = no margin. Recommended minimum: 99%.
EV (Expected Value)
Long-term expected gain in %. Positive EV = mathematically winning. Minimum: 2.5%.
EV + RTP
Fallback rule: if RTP is below threshold but EV + RTP > 100%, you can bet.
🚦The 3 possible verdicts▼
BET
EV ≥ threshold AND RTP ≥ threshold. Value confirmed.
BET (EV+RTP > 100%)
RTP a bit low but fallback rule validated. Bet with caution.
DON'T BET
EV too low or RTP too low. This bet has no value.
📋The 8 market types▼
2 Outcomes
Over/Under, BTTS, Handicap, ML Tennis/Basketball. 2 PS3838 odds + 1 BO.
Over 3.5 goals → PS3838: 1.943 / 1.909, BO: 2.20
3 Outcomes
Classic 1X2 Football. Studied odds + Draw + Opposite.
4 Single
Combined markets on 1 match (BTTS + Over). 4 PS3838 odds.
4 Combo
2 matches in ML or AH -0.5. Odds separated per match. RTP degrades multiplicatively.
Chelsea + Liverpool Win → RTP 99%×99% = 98%
6 Single
1X2 × BTTS (3×2 = 6 outcomes), grouped correct score.
6 Double Chance
DC + BTTS. The first 2 odds = the 2 outcomes covered by the DC. Fair odd calculated on the sum of the first 2 probabilities.
Real or Draw AND BTTS
9 Single
HT/FT (Half/Full = 3×3 = 9). If 8 odds available, enter 100 for the 9th.
9 Combo
2 matches in 1X2 (3×3 = 9 combinations). E.g. OM Win + Lille Win.
🔢Step-by-step guide▼
Choose the market type by clicking the matching tab
Enter the PS3838 odds for all outcomes. The "studied odds" (highlighted) = the one you want to bet on
Enter the Bookmaker Odds (BO) — the odds your bookmaker offers
The result shows automatically: Fair Odd, RTP, EV and the verdict
🤔What is the "Opposite odds"?▼
In a 2-outcome market (e.g. Over/Under), PS3838 always shows 2 odds. The "studied odds" = the one you want to bet (e.g. Over 3.5 at 1.943). The "opposite odds" = the other outcome (e.g. Under 3.5 at 1.909).
We need both to calculate the book's margin (RTP) and the fair odd. Without the opposite odds, it's impossible to know if your odds have value.
Pro tips
📌 Only bet value on odds ≤ 2.50
📌 Very small stake: ~0.25% of bankroll
📌 RTP much better on ML/1X2 than on Over, BTTS, scorers
📌 Combo of 2 matches max — never 3+ (99%×99%×99% = 97%)
📌 A value is value at a given moment, it can change
📌 MATHEMATICAL value (PS3838), not subjective
📌 Scorer markets NOT included — compare with OrbitX