Value Comparator
Compare odds to a reference and compute the value percentage.
Value Comparator
Compare a book's odds to a reference to measure value.
Ref = fairest odds (e.g. Pinnacle, or your estimate)
📚 Guide
Measuring a bet's value
Comparing odds to their true probability
💡What is value?▼
A bet has value when the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the 'fair' odds — those reflecting the event's true probability. Long term, betting only on positive-value odds is the only mathematical way to win.
The reference odds approximate that 'true' probability. Pinnacle is often used because its margins are very low, so its odds are close to the market's fair price.
🧮The formula▼
Value % = (book odds / ref odds − 1) × 100
If the book's odds exceed the reference odds, the edge is positive: the book pays you more than your true probability justifies. That's where value is.
Practical tips
📌 Use a low-margin reference (Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange) for a reliable estimate.
📌 A value of +2% to +5% is already interesting; above +10%, check for an error (injury, missing info).
📌 Value doesn't guarantee winning that specific bet: it guarantees a long-term edge over many bets.