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Belgium vs Iran: Odds Analysis and Value Opportunities

Published on June 21, 2026 at 10:01 AM · 17 h ago · Kick-off : Jun 21, 09:00 PM

Belgium vs Iran

The odds market for Belgium-Iran reveals significant pricing disparities among operators. Pinnacle, the liquidity benchmark with tight margins, sets fair odds at 1.50 for the home side and 7.79 for away. The cumulative optimal TRJ (196.1%) exceeds 100%, signaling a potential market inefficiency to explore cautiously.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.1.454.747.5496.8%
Betfair1.474.908.2099.4%
Matchbook1.474.908.2099.4%
1xBet1.484.757.8598.7%
Unibet (NL)1.474.708.0098.2%
Unibet (SE)1.474.708.0098.2%
Coolbet1.464.758.0098.0%
BetOnline.ag1.444.678.0596.8%
BetAnything1.444.678.0596.8%
Betsson1.444.657.7096.2%
Nordic Bet1.444.657.7096.2%
Unibet (FR)1.424.708.0096.0%
Betclic (FR)1.434.757.5095.9%
Winamax (DE)1.434.907.0095.6%
Everygame1.444.607.2595.3%
Codere (IT)1.434.607.4095.1%
LeoVegas (SE)1.434.507.5094.8%
GTbets1.424.607.4994.8%
Tipico1.404.707.8094.8%
Winamax (FR)1.424.806.7594.3%
MyBookie.ag1.424.507.2093.9%
PMU (FR)1.424.357.5093.7%
William Hill1.444.337.0093.6%
888sport1.404.206.5090.4%
Marathon Bet4.751.2410.5089.9%
Best odds4.754.9010.50196.1%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)1.504.907.79

Best value bet

Belgium (win)at Marathon Bet

4.75+217.0% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Belgium

67%

X

20%

Iran

13%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

Marathon BetBelgium+217.0%
Marathon BetIran+34.8%
BetfairIran+5.3%
MatchbookIran+5.3%
BetOnline.agIran+3.3%
BetAnythingIran+3.3%
Unibet (FR)Iran+2.7%
CoolbetIran+2.7%

Margin and TRJ Overview: Pinnacle delivers a TRJ of 96.8%, consistent with its tight margins. The lowest TRJ figures come from 888sport (90.4%) and Marathon Bet (89.9%), while Betfair and Matchbook top out at 99.4%. This 10-point range reflects differing appetites for each outcome. French operators (Winamax, Betclic, PMU) cluster around 93.7–95.9%, positioned in the mid-range.

Value Analysis: Marathon Bet generates dramatic gaps: its odds on Belgium (4.75 for the draw) versus Pinnacle's fair odd produce a nonsensical spread gap (+217.0%), likely indicating a data formatting error or display anomaly in this book (verify live). For Iran, Marathon Bet offers 10.50 versus 7.79 fair (+34.8%), a substantial but unconfirmed margin. On the away side, Betfair and Matchbook present 8.20 versus 7.79 (+5.3%), a moderate value worth testing. BetOnline.ag and BetAnything show 8.05 (+3.3%), light but verifiable value.

Surebet Opportunity: The optimal TRJ at 196.1% (combining best odds: 4.75 draw Marathon Bet, 4.90 draw Winamax DE, 10.50 Iran Marathon Bet) exceeds 100%, suggesting a potential arbitrage overlay. This configuration demands immediate live verification: odds shift constantly, and negative margins (TRJ > 100%) compress quickly. Use CalculaBet's surebet tool to validate real-world feasibility and placement conditions.

Recommendation: The most robust value signals concern Iran (Betfair/Matchbook 8.20). Marathon Bet's spreads require immediate inspection before action. Consult CalculaBet's TRJ calculator and value tool to adjust decisions per current odds, as this market shows clear volatility.

Check for yourself

Refine the analysis with our calculators:

Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.