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Belgium vs Senegal (World Cup): odds analysis and value opportunities

Published on June 30, 2026 at 10:01 AM · 5 d ago · Kick-off : Jul 1, 10:00 PM

Belgium vs Senegal

Belgium and Senegal meet on July 1st, 2026 in the World Cup. The odds reflect a well-structured market around Belgium as favorite (fair odd 2.30). Analysis reveals moderate value opportunities on the away result and the draw, plus a surebet opportunity to verify live.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.2.233.273.5996.8%
Matchbook2.283.303.8099.5%
Betfair2.283.303.8099.5%
1xBet2.243.443.5898.4%
Coolbet2.253.303.6597.9%
Unibet (SE)2.283.153.7597.8%
Unibet (NL)2.283.153.7597.8%
Betsson2.283.253.5096.9%
Nordic Bet2.283.253.5096.9%
Marathon Bet2.203.383.5296.7%
BetOnline.ag2.243.263.5596.6%
Unibet (FR)2.203.303.6096.6%
PMU (FR)2.203.153.7596.3%
BetAnything2.203.233.6096.0%
Betclic (FR)2.183.273.5095.2%
GTbets2.203.253.4795.2%
Tipico2.203.303.4095.1%
Everygame2.203.253.4595.0%
Codere (IT)2.203.253.4595.0%
LeoVegas (SE)2.233.053.6094.9%
MyBookie.ag2.183.223.4494.3%
Winamax (DE)2.203.253.3594.3%
Winamax (FR)2.153.253.3593.3%
888sport2.153.103.3091.7%
William Hill2.153.103.3091.7%
Best odds2.283.443.80100.8%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)2.303.383.71

Best value bet

Senegal (win)at Matchbook

3.80+2.5% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Belgium

43%

X

30%

Senegal

27%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

MatchbookSenegal+2.5%
BetfairSenegal+2.5%
1xBetX+1.9%
Unibet (SE)Senegal+1.1%
PMU (FR)Senegal+1.1%
Unibet (NL)Senegal+1.1%

Overall market structure: Pinnacle sets fair odds at 2.30 Belgium, 3.38 draw, and 3.71 Senegal. Average TRJ hovers around 95-97%, indicating an efficient market with standard margins. Winamax (FR) and 888sport/William Hill emerge as priciest (93-92% TRJ), while Matchbook and Betfair reach 99.5%.

Value signals on Senegal: Matchbook and Betfair each offer 3.80 against fair odd 3.71, representing moderate potential value of +2.5%. Unibet (SE/NL) and PMU quote 3.75 (+1.1%), which is marginal. No value detected on Belgium home, where best odds (2.28 at Unibet SE/NL) fall short of the 2.30 reference.

Slight value on the draw: 1xBet offers 3.44 vs 3.38, yielding +1.9% potential value—moderate but actionable for draw backers. Marathon Bet matches Pinnacle at 3.38.

Potential surebet opportunity: optimal TRJ combining best odds (2.28 / 3.44 / 3.80) reaches 100.8%, exceeding 100%. Must verify live immediately as odds move fast. If confirmed, it reveals a wafer-thin but theoretically exploitable margin.

Recommendations: for Senegal exposure, Matchbook or Betfair (3.80) offer best value. For the draw, 1xBet (3.44) shows slight edge. Serious bettors will use CalculaBet's Value Bet calculator to quantify actual expected return on their bankrolls. The surebet opportunity warrants instant verification via CalculaBet's TRJ/Surebet tool.

Check for yourself

Refine the analysis with our calculators:

Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.