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Coupe du Monde

England vs Ghana: abnormal draw odds and contrasting outsider signals

Published on June 23, 2026 at 10:02 AM · 8 h ago · Kick-off : Jun 23, 10:00 PM

England vs Ghana

This World Cup match between England and Ghana shows remarkable odds dispersion across bookmakers. Spreads between best and worst odds reach 2.00 points on England, 2.00 on the draw, and 5.50 on Ghana, revealing significant divergence on match perception. TRJ and value analysis identifies situations where odds exceed the Pinnacle reference.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.1.217.2516.0097.4%
Betfair1.217.8018.5099.1%
Matchbook1.217.8018.5099.1%
1xBet1.217.3819.0098.6%
Coolbet1.217.3516.5097.7%
Unibet (NL)1.197.5020.0097.7%
Unibet (SE)1.197.5020.0097.7%
BetOnline.ag1.207.5016.5097.3%
BetAnything1.207.5016.5097.3%
Unibet (FR)1.178.0017.0096.3%
Betclic (FR)1.187.7516.0096.3%
Nordic Bet1.196.9018.5096.2%
Betsson1.196.9018.5096.2%
Winamax (DE)1.187.7514.0095.4%
Codere (IT)1.187.0016.0095.0%
LeoVegas (SE)1.177.0018.0095.0%
GTbets1.196.9214.4594.9%
Tipico1.177.5015.0094.8%
William Hill1.186.5017.0094.3%
Winamax (FR)1.177.5013.5094.2%
Everygame1.186.7515.0094.1%
MyBookie.ag1.176.9015.5094.0%
PMU (FR)1.167.0016.0093.7%
888sport1.186.0015.0092.5%
Marathon Bet4.251.2612.2590.0%
Best odds4.258.0020.00243.7%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)1.247.4416.43

Best value bet

England (win)at Marathon Bet

4.25+242.1% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

England

81%

X

13%

Ghana

6%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

Marathon BetEngland+242.1%
Unibet (NL)Ghana+21.7%
Unibet (SE)Ghana+21.7%
1xBetGhana+15.6%
BetfairGhana+12.6%
MatchbookGhana+12.6%
Nordic BetGhana+12.6%
BetssonGhana+12.6%

Market clarity and TRJ. The average TRJ across 25 bookmakers is 95.4%, indicating a well-arbitraged market with few global inefficiencies. However, the optimal TRJ of 243.7% reveals a structural divergence between bookmakers: stacking the best odds (1.00 = 4.25 Marathon Bet, Draw = 8.00 Unibet FR, 2.00 = 20.00 Unibet NL) yields a surplus potential warrant verification in real time. Note: Marathon Bet offers 4.25 on England, far above others (1.16–1.21) — this signal must be validated before action, as it may reflect an error or closed book position.

Value signals on Ghana. Five bookmakers display structural value on Ghana: Unibet (NL) and Unibet (SE) offer 20.00 against Pinnacle's fair odd of 16.43 (+21.7%), 1xBet 19.00 (+15.6%), Betfair and Matchbook 18.50 each (+12.6%). Unibet (NL) and (SE) stand out as the most generous. These odds reflect a Ghana valuation above market consensus. These situations constitute potential value on the outsider — provided your own model justifies it.

Draw: the most visible fracture. Draw odds swing between 6.00 (888sport, TRJ 92.5% — the lowest) and 8.00 (Unibet FR, TRJ 96.3%), a 2.00-point spread — abnormal for this outcome. Pinnacle's fair odd (7.44) suggests 888sport undervalues this probability. Unibet (FR) at 8.00 exceeds the reference, offering marginal potential value. With the lowest TRJ in the panel, 888sport absorbs higher margin.

England: tight convergence except anomaly. Most bookmakers align England between 1.16 and 1.21 (fair Pinnacle: 1.24), with no notable value — except Marathon Bet at 4.25, which breaks consensus entirely and must be verified real-time. Primary odds offer little value interest on this favorite. Use CalculaBet's Value Bet and TRJ calculators to isolate these divergences, and the Surebet calculator to confirm the 243.7% opportunity before engagement.

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Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.