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Serie A

Lecce – AS Roma: Notable value on home win, surebet to verify

Published on August 31, 2026 at 10:02 AM · 18 d ago · Kick-off : Aug 31, 06:30 PM

Lecce vs AS Roma

In this Serie A clash between Lecce and AS Roma, the bookmakers' odds reveal two clear signals: a moderate-to-notable potential value on the home win and an optimal TRJ exceeding 100%, to be verified live before execution.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.7.684.401.4896.8%
Matchbook8.804.501.5099.8%
Betfair8.804.501.4999.3%
1xBet7.954.451.5098.3%
GTbets7.424.211.5397.5%
Coolbet7.804.401.4897.0%
BetOnline.ag7.804.351.4896.7%
Marathon Bet7.804.351.4796.3%
Unibet (SE)8.004.351.4595.7%
Unibet (NL)8.004.351.4595.7%
Betclic (FR)7.754.401.4495.2%
BetAnything7.254.201.4895.1%
Everygame7.504.331.4594.9%
Codere (IT)7.604.101.4794.7%
Tipico8.004.301.4294.2%
Betsson7.304.151.4694.1%
Nordic Bet7.304.151.4694.1%
Winamax (DE)6.754.501.4393.5%
PMU (FR)7.504.101.4392.9%
Unibet (FR)7.304.401.4092.7%
Winamax (FR)6.504.401.4292.1%
888sport7.004.001.4492.0%
William Hill7.004.001.4492.0%
LeoVegas (SE)7.504.001.4292.0%
Best odds8.804.501.53101.1%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)7.934.551.53

Best value bet

Lecce (win)at Betfair

8.80+10.9% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Lecce

13%

X

22%

AS Roma

65%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

BetfairLecce+10.9%
MatchbookLecce+10.9%

Value on Lecce (home): Betfair and Matchbook display 8.80 on Lecce's victory, outperforming Pinnacle's fair odds (7.93) by 10.9%. This gap represents notable value by market standards. Other bookmakers quote closer to the reference: Codere, 1xBet, Betclic and others range between 7.30 and 7.95, revealing loose consensus around 7.50–7.80 across most operators.

Odds distribution and bookmaker TRJ: TRJ spans 91.9% (LeoVegas) to 99.7% (Matchbook). Winamax (FR) and 888sport/William Hill offer the lowest TRJ (92.0–92.1%), indicating tighter margins. Conversely, Matchbook (99.7%) and Betfair (99.3%) show higher TRJ, offset by generous odds on both underdogs (Lecce and draw). On AS Roma's win, spreads remain tight (1.40–1.53), with GTbets posting the best return (1.53 vs Pinnacle's fair 1.53).

Surebet opportunity (optimal TRJ 101.1%): Combining best odds per outcome — 8.80 (Lecce, Betfair/Matchbook), 4.50 (draw, Winamax DE), 1.53 (AS Roma, GTbets) — optimal TRJ reaches 101.1%, exceeding 100%. This theoretical setup signals potential coverage, yet odds shift constantly; verify these through CalculaBet's value, TRJ and surebet calculators before staking. Margins are razor-thin and can close rapidly.

Recommendation: For a short-term value seeker, the 8.80 odds on Lecce at Betfair or Matchbook warrant examination against Pinnacle's fair odds. Optimal TRJ > 100% merits live verification, but without durability guarantee — books adjust dynamically based on betting flow.

Check for yourself

Refine the analysis with our calculators:

Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.