← All analyses
Coupe du Monde

New Zealand – Belgium (World Cup): Notable value on the All Blacks, tight TRJ

Published on June 26, 2026 at 10:02 AM · 21 h ago · Kick-off : Jun 27, 05:00 AM

New Zealand vs Belgium

The 2026 World Cup serves as the arena for this lopsided clash on paper: Belgium enters as clear favorite with odds around 1.19, while New Zealand ranges from 16.00 to 18.00 depending on the book. Analysis reveals pockets of interesting value on the outsiders, particularly on sharp betting platforms.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.16.008.001.1997.3%
Betfair18.008.401.2099.2%
Matchbook18.008.401.2099.2%
1xBet17.007.851.2098.1%
Coolbet17.008.001.1997.6%
Unibet (NL)17.008.001.1997.6%
Unibet (SE)17.008.001.1997.6%
BetOnline.ag16.008.151.1997.5%
BetAnything16.008.151.1997.5%
Marathon Bet17.007.801.1997.3%
Nordic Bet16.506.901.2096.3%
Betsson16.506.901.2096.3%
Unibet (FR)16.508.501.1696.1%
Betclic (FR)16.008.001.1796.0%
LeoVegas (SE)17.007.501.1795.5%
Everygame15.007.501.1895.5%
GTbets15.047.851.1795.4%
Codere (IT)15.007.801.1795.3%
Tipico15.008.001.1694.9%
MyBookie.ag14.507.601.1794.8%
Winamax (DE)13.008.501.1694.6%
Winamax (FR)12.508.001.1693.7%
William Hill13.007.001.1893.7%
PMU (FR)16.007.001.1593.0%
888sport13.006.501.1792.1%
Best odds18.008.501.2099.3%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)16.458.221.22

Best value bet

New Zealand (win)at Betfair

18.00+9.4% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

New Zealand

6%

X

12%

Belgium

82%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

BetfairNew Zealand+9.4%
MatchbookNew Zealand+9.4%
CoolbetNew Zealand+3.4%
Marathon BetNew Zealand+3.4%
Unibet (NL)New Zealand+3.4%
LeoVegas (SE)New Zealand+3.4%
Unibet (SE)New Zealand+3.4%
Winamax (DE)X+3.4%

Bookmaker hierarchy and TRJ. The market displays very tight consensus: 25 listed bookmakers with TRJ ranging from 92.1% (888sport) to 99.2% (Betfair, Matchbook). This variance reveals substantial margin differentiation across platforms. 888sport and William Hill offer the worst cumulative odds (92–93.7%), while Betfair and Matchbook maintain near-optimal TRJ of 99.2%, a sign of precise match modeling.

Value on New Zealand. Betfair and Matchbook offer 18.00 on the All Blacks, representing +9.5% value versus Pinnacle's fair odd (16.45). This is notable value and justifies targeting these two platforms if you lean toward a New Zealand result. Coolbet, Marathon Bet, Unibet (NL), Unibet (SE), and LeoVegas (SE) quote 17.00, equating to a moderate +3.4% value—a secondary but measurable opportunity. By contrast, 888sport, William Hill, and Winamax (FR) max out at 13.00, widening the gap between sharpista and generalist books.

Draw and Belgium sector. The draw shows near-zero value: the best quote (8.50 at Winamax DE) barely tops the fair odd (8.22) by only +3.4%, extremely marginal. On Belgium the favorite, the market is ultra-tight (1.15–1.20), with no detectable value. Bookmakers battle over pennies without creating inefficiency.

Practical exploitation. Use the Value Bet calculator to confirm your New Zealand probability: if you estimate probability above 6.25% (inverse of 16.00), Betfair or Matchbook at 18.00 becomes attractive. The cumulative TRJ (99.4%) shows little room for classic arbing; best combinations will come via one-sided value, not guaranteed surebets. Check odds live before placing: this market moves constantly.

Check for yourself

Refine the analysis with our calculators:

Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.