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Premier League

Newcastle vs Bournemouth: odds analysis and value opportunities

Published on September 4, 2026 at 10:01 AM · 14 d ago · Kick-off : Sep 5, 01:30 PM

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

Newcastle United hosts Bournemouth in this Premier League fixture. Odds analysis reveals a tight market, with narrow spreads between bookmakers and overall margins stable around 93–99%. A few configurations offer slight overvalue on home victory.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.2.133.753.3696.7%
Betfair2.183.803.5099.3%
Matchbook2.183.803.5099.3%
1xBet2.193.783.4098.5%
Coolbet2.143.803.4598.0%
Unibet (NL)2.233.853.2098.0%
Unibet (SE)2.233.853.2098.0%
Marathon Bet2.153.723.3596.9%
Codere (IT)2.143.653.2595.3%
Betsson2.123.653.2594.9%
Nordic Bet2.123.653.2594.9%
LeoVegas (SE)2.163.703.1094.7%
GTbets2.153.623.1694.5%
Betclic (FR)2.083.683.2794.5%
Tipico2.053.603.4094.4%
Winamax (DE)2.103.703.1594.0%
BetOnline.ag2.083.603.2593.8%
BetAnything2.083.603.2593.8%
William Hill2.103.603.2093.8%
PMU (FR)2.143.653.0593.5%
888sport2.103.503.2093.1%
Unibet (FR)2.053.603.2092.8%
MyBookie.ag2.093.553.1492.7%
Winamax (FR)2.053.653.1092.2%
Everygame2.053.503.1591.7%
Best odds2.233.853.50100.6%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)2.203.883.47

Best value bet

Newcastle United (win)at Unibet (NL)

2.23+1.3% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Newcastle United

45%

X

26%

Bournemouth

29%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

Unibet (NL)Newcastle United+1.3%
Unibet (SE)Newcastle United+1.3%

Bookmaker profiles and ROI. ROI distribution ranges from 91.7% (Everygame) to 99.2% (Betfair, Matchbook), revealing a competitive overall margin. Pinnacle displays 96.7%, a median position expected for a liquidity benchmark. The most generous books are Unibet (NL/SE) and 1xBet, with respective ROIs of 98.0% and 98.5%, while Winamax (FR) and Everygame offer the sharpest margins (92.2% and 91.7%).

Home victory analysis. Newcastle odds range from 2.05 to 2.23, against a Pinnacle fair odd of 2.20. Unibet (NL) and Unibet (SE) quote 2.23 vs 2.20 reference, generating potential value of just +1.3%. This overvalue is marginal and reflects a slightly bullish positioning on the Magpies, but lacks meaningful magnitude. 1xBet (2.19) and Betfair (2.18) sit very close to fair value.

Draw and away victory. The draw ranges between 3.50 (888sport) and 3.85 (Unibet NL/SE), against a fair of 3.88. No book improves on Pinnacle for this outcome; quotes remain slightly short. Away (Bournemouth) varies from 3.05 (PMU) to 3.50 (Betfair), facing a fair of 3.47. Betfair displays 3.50 vs 3.47, signaling micro-value of +0.9%.

Surebet opportunity. Optimal ROI reaches 100.6% by combining Unibet (NL) on Newcastle (2.23), Unibet (NL/SE) on draw (3.85), and Betfair on Bournemouth (3.50). This configuration, though rare, requires immediate live verification as odds shift rapidly. Margins between books remain tight, making arbitrage fleeting. Use CalculaBet's Surebet calculator to confirm opportunity before commitment.

Analytical recommendation. Value signals are marginal and concentrated on home victory via Unibet (NL/SE). For bettors seeking value, CalculaBet's Value Bet and ROI calculators enable identification of best odds and assessment of expected return based on your minimum value threshold. The market remains highly competitive with little apparent dislocation.

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Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.