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Coupe du Monde

Norway vs England: odds analysis and value opportunities

Published on July 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM · 24 d ago · Kick-off : Jul 11, 11:00 PM

Norway vs England

The match between Norway and England in the 2026 World Cup crystallizes a balanced market. With an optimal ROI reaching exactly 100%, odds are tight and gaps between bookmakers remain limited. Only a marginal value opportunity emerges on the draw outcome.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.4.073.771.9597.7%
Betfair4.103.851.9899.1%
Matchbook4.103.851.9899.1%
1xBet4.043.791.9898.4%
Coolbet4.003.702.0098.0%
Nordic Bet4.053.751.9597.4%
Betsson4.053.751.9597.4%
Unibet (SE)3.953.801.9597.2%
Unibet (NL)3.953.801.9597.2%
BetOnline.ag4.003.801.9397.0%
BetAnything4.003.801.9397.0%
Unibet (FR)3.853.901.9196.2%
Betclic (FR)3.853.901.9196.2%
GTbets3.953.711.9396.1%
Marathon Bet3.923.681.9295.5%
Winamax (DE)3.903.751.9095.3%
LeoVegas (SE)3.853.701.9295.2%
Tipico3.703.801.9395.1%
Everygame3.903.651.9194.9%
Codere (IT)3.903.651.9194.9%
Winamax (FR)3.853.701.9094.7%
PMU (FR)3.703.801.9194.6%
MyBookie.ag3.903.601.9094.3%
William Hill3.803.501.8591.8%
888sport3.753.401.8590.8%
Best odds4.103.902.00100.0%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)4.173.862.00

Best value bet

drawat Unibet (FR)

3.90+1.1% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Norway

24%

X

26%

England

50%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

Unibet (FR)X+1.1%
Betclic (FR)X+1.1%

Odds landscape and ROI. Bookmakers display moderate collective margin. The optimal ROI (100%) is achieved by capturing the best odds on each outcome: Norway 4.10 (Betfair), Draw 3.90 (Unibet FR / Betclic FR), England 2.00 (Coolbet). Most books show ROI between 94% and 99%, signaling an efficient market. Betfair and Matchbook, at 99.1% ROI, rank among the most generous, while 888sport (90.8%) and William Hill (91.8%) carry the steepest margins.

Value detected. Two light value signals emerge, strictly limited to the draw. Unibet (FR) and Betclic (FR) each offer 3.90 for a draw against Pinnacle's fair odd of 3.86 — representing potential value of +1.0%. This margin is very slight and reflects minimal gaps in a well-aligned market. No value surfaces on either team's outright win.

Issue-by-issue breakdown. On Norway (home), the most competitive quote is 4.10 (Betfair), notably lower than the fair odd 4.17, suggesting the market undervalues the home favorite relative to Pinnacle. On England (away), the gap is minimal: Coolbet offers 2.00, exactly aligned with fair odd. Liquidity concentrates on extremes (wins) with little differentiation, while the draw benefits from slight French generosity.

Practical recommendations. For a value-seeking bettor, the draw configuration at Unibet (FR) or Betclic (FR) at 3.90 warrants consideration, though expected return is negligible relative to risk. Users of CalculaBet's Value Bet calculator can confirm this edge. The 100% optimal ROI masks a theoretical surebet opportunity, but real-time odds volatility requires immediate verification via CalculaBet's Surebet tool before committing capital. To maximize margin-to-odds ratio, Betfair and Matchbook remain preferable on overall ROI.

Check for yourself

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Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.