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Paraguay vs Australia: Notable value on outsiders, surebet to verify

Published on June 25, 2026 at 10:01 AM · 1 d ago · Kick-off : Jun 26, 04:00 AM

Paraguay vs Australia

Paraguay and Australia face off in a World Cup match amid a fragmented market: odds vary significantly between bookmakers, creating interesting opportunities for the attentive bettor. Let's analyze the odds distribution and value signals versus the Pinnacle reference.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.2.852.304.0096.6%
Matchbook2.842.384.2099.0%
Betfair2.822.364.3098.9%
1xBet2.882.334.1898.5%
Coolbet2.982.254.1097.7%
Marathon Bet2.852.314.1597.6%
BetOnline.ag2.932.264.0597.0%
BetAnything2.932.264.0597.0%
Unibet (SE)2.902.284.0096.8%
Unibet (NL)2.902.284.0096.8%
Betsson3.102.303.6096.6%
Nordic Bet3.102.303.6096.6%
Betclic (FR)2.852.304.0096.6%
Unibet (FR)2.852.304.0096.6%
Winamax (DE)2.752.353.8595.3%
Codere (IT)2.802.293.9095.2%
LeoVegas (SE)2.852.253.9095.1%
Everygame2.752.254.1095.1%
GTbets2.852.243.9094.9%
Tipico2.602.354.1094.9%
MyBookie.ag2.772.273.8594.2%
Winamax (FR)2.752.303.8094.2%
PMU (FR)2.802.203.8093.0%
888sport2.752.203.6091.2%
William Hill2.752.203.6091.2%
Best odds3.102.384.30102.5%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)2.952.384.14

Best value bet

Paraguay (win)at Betsson

3.10+5.0% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Paraguay

34%

X

42%

Australia

24%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

BetssonParaguay+5.0%
Nordic BetParaguay+5.0%
BetfairAustralia+3.8%
MatchbookAustralia+1.4%

Odds dispersion and ROI: The bookmaker table reveals significant volatility. ROI ranges from 91.2% (888sport, William Hill) to 99.0% (Matchbook), with the majority clustered between 94% and 98%. Winamax (FR) and PMU (FR) display the highest margins (94.2% and 93.0% respectively), while Betfair (98.9%), Matchbook (99.0%), and 1xBet (98.5%) offer near-equitable structures. This variation suggests genuine market uncertainty about this matchup.

Value on Paraguay (home): Betsson and Nordic Bet stand out with a 3.10 quote on Paraguay's victory, compared to Pinnacle's fair odd of 2.95. This difference represents potential value of +5.0%, classified as moderate to notable. This is the match's most robust signal. By comparison, other books offer 2.75–2.98, representing minimal or no edge versus the reference.

Value on Australia (away): Betfair offers 4.30 versus a fair odd of 4.14, generating +3.8% value — moderate. Matchbook follows at 4.20 (value +1.4%, marginal). Most books cluster the quote between 3.60 and 4.10, revealing consensus on Australia's implied probability but a tighter margin than Paraguay.

Surebet opportunity: The optimal ROI of 102.5% (combining best odds: 3.10 on Paraguay, 2.38 on draw, 4.30 on Australia) signals a surebet possibility to verify live. However, odds move rapidly in major matches; it is essential to confirm this configuration directly on the platforms before structuring a portfolio. Use CalculaBet's surebet calculator to validate. The draw shows negative or flat value across all books (2.20–2.38 vs fair 2.38).

Actionable summary: Betsson and Nordic Bet are most generous on Paraguay; Betfair clearly so on Australia. For a classic value strategy, prioritize Betsson/Nordic Bet on 1X2. For a surebet approach, immediately verify the 3.10/2.38/4.30 combination via CalculaBet's ROI calculator and adjust as live odds evolve.

Check for yourself

Refine the analysis with our calculators:

Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.