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Coupe du Monde

Paraguay vs France: Notable value on draw, surebet to verify

Published on July 4, 2026 at 10:00 AM · 1 d ago · Kick-off : Jul 4, 11:00 PM

Paraguay vs France

Paraguay hosts France in a 2026 World Cup quarter-final on July 4th. Odds vary significantly across sportsbooks, revealing value opportunities on multiple outcomes. Pinnacle, taken as reference, shows fair odds of 20.00 on Paraguay's victory, 7.64 on the draw, and 1.22 on France's win.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.19.507.451.1997.5%
Betfair23.007.601.2099.2%
Matchbook22.007.601.2099.0%
1xBet17.007.801.2198.7%
Coolbet20.007.201.2097.8%
Unibet (NL)19.008.001.1897.5%
Unibet (SE)19.008.001.1897.5%
Nordic Bet17.007.001.2197.3%
Betsson17.007.001.2197.3%
BetOnline.ag20.507.401.1897.0%
BetAnything20.507.401.1897.0%
Unibet (FR)19.007.751.1796.5%
Betclic (FR)19.007.751.1796.5%
LeoVegas (SE)18.007.501.1795.8%
Marathon Bet15.257.001.1995.3%
Everygame17.007.001.1895.3%
Tipico20.007.201.1695.2%
Winamax (FR)17.007.251.1795.1%
Winamax (DE)17.007.251.1795.1%
Codere (IT)15.006.801.1994.9%
GTbets14.856.781.1994.8%
MyBookie.ag26.058.181.1194.2%
PMU (FR)16.007.001.1593.0%
888sport15.006.501.1793.0%
William Hill15.006.501.1793.0%
Best odds26.058.181.21101.3%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)20.007.641.22

Best value bet

Paraguay (win)at MyBookie.ag

26.05+30.2% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Paraguay

5%

X

13%

France

82%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

MyBookie.agParaguay+30.2%
BetfairParaguay+15.0%
MatchbookParaguay+10.0%
MyBookie.agX+7.0%
Unibet (NL)X+4.7%
Unibet (SE)X+4.7%
BetOnline.agParaguay+2.5%
BetAnythingParaguay+2.5%

Significant disparities and value on Paraguay: MyBookie.ag stands out with a 26.05 odds on Paraguay's victory—potential value of +30.2% versus Pinnacle's fair odd (20.00). This gap is notable and warrants attention, though it likely reflects different client preferences at this operator rather than a durable market inefficiency. Betfair (23.00, +15.0%) and Matchbook (22.00, +10.0%) also offer odds above the reference, but less generously.

Draw: Moderate opportunities and scattered across books: The draw shows less dispersion. MyBookie.ag offers 8.18 against a fair odd of 7.64 (+7.0% value), while the three Unibet versions (NL, SE, FR) show 8.00 and 7.75 depending on the variant, providing marginal value of +4.7% to +1.4%. These potential gains remain light but constitute detectable gaps.

France's victory: Compression and no value: The most likely outcome (1.19–1.22 odds) presents no value opportunity. 1xBet, Nordic Bet, and Betsson place their best odds at 1.21—virtually identical to Pinnacle's fair odd (1.22). Margins are tight on this side of the match.

Technical signals and TRJ: The optimal TRJ of 101.3% results from combining the three best odds (26.05 / 8.18 / 1.21). This 100% overshoot, though slight (+1.3%), is rare enough to flag. Verify live directly with the same sportsbooks, as odds fluctuate and this configuration may correct within minutes. Among mainstream operators, Matchbook (99.0%) and Betfair (99.2%) show the least punitive TRJ, while PMU and 888sport display 93.0%—far above the true cost of the market.

Practical recommendations: Use the Value Bet calculator to isolate the best odds on Paraguay and the draw based on your preferred operators. The TRJ and Surebet calculators will allow you to verify the stability of the 101.3% configuration in real time before commitment. Odds evolve constantly: this analysis captures a static snapshot.

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Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.