Odds distribution and TRJ. Home odds (Senegal) cluster tightly between 1.20 and 1.26, with Pinnacle at 1.25 as the central reference. Draws range from 6.00 to 7.20, while Iraq spreads more widely (10.50 to 14.00), revealing divergent market views on the underdog. TRJ varies from 92.8% (William Hill, 888sport) to 99.6% (Betfair, Matchbook), showing significant margin differences. Coolbet, Pinnacle, and Marathon Bet feature the most competitive TRJ (97.2–97.5%), offering tighter odds density.
Value on Iraq: moderate but real signal. Five bookmakers (Marathon Bet, Betfair, Matchbook, Unibet NL, and Unibet SE) offer 14.00 on an Iraq victory versus Pinnacle's fair odd of 12.31: a +13.7% value edge. 1xBet supplements this opportunity at 13.60 (+10.4%). These signals suggest the overall market slightly underestimates Iraq's chances. Caveat: this assessment relies on Pinnacle's implied probability; the value magnitude (13.7%) is moderate but worthy of attention for longer-term bets.
Favorites and no apparent value. Senegal and draws show no marked value: the best odds (Betfair 1.26 for home, Unibet FR 7.20 for draw) are roughly level with or below fair value. Competition among books strengthens efficiency on these outcomes.
Strategy: TRJ and value combined. The optimal TRJ at 99.6% (combining 1.26 + 7.20 + 14.00) sits very close to parity, confirming a mature market. To exploit Iraq's value, prioritize Marathon Bet, Betfair, or Unibet depending on your geography, and cross-check with CalculaBet's value calculator to refine your ROI. Always verify odds live: they shift rapidly pre-match.