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Coupe du Monde

Spain vs Belgium: Notable value on Belgium win, Optimal TRJ > 100%

Published on July 10, 2026 at 10:01 AM · 25 d ago · Kick-off : Jul 10, 09:00 PM

Spain vs Belgium

On this World Cup quarterfinal between Spain and Belgium, the odds market shows notable dispersion, with an optimal TRJ exceeding 100%. Unibet (FR) stands out in particular on Belgium's win with an unusually generous odds. Analysis of the best opportunities in light of Pinnacle odds.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.1.654.035.8397.5%
Matchbook1.694.006.0099.2%
Betfair1.684.006.0098.8%
1xBet1.664.175.7798.5%
Betsson1.683.955.6097.4%
Nordic Bet1.683.905.7097.4%
Unibet (SE)1.663.955.8097.3%
Unibet (NL)1.663.955.8097.3%
BetOnline.ag1.653.975.8897.3%
BetAnything1.653.975.8897.3%
Unibet (FR)1.584.106.4096.8%
Betclic (FR)1.614.105.9096.7%
PMU (FR)1.643.955.6096.0%
GTbets1.644.015.3195.5%
Marathon Bet1.604.005.8095.5%
Codere (IT)1.634.005.4095.4%
Winamax (DE)1.624.005.5095.3%
Tipico1.604.005.7095.2%
LeoVegas (SE)1.633.855.6095.1%
Everygame1.623.905.5094.7%
Winamax (FR)1.604.005.5094.6%
MyBookie.ag1.653.855.2094.5%
William Hill1.623.805.0092.5%
888sport1.603.755.0091.6%
Best odds1.694.176.40101.2%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)1.694.135.98

Best value bet

Belgium (win)at Unibet (FR)

6.40+7.0% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Spain

59%

X

24%

Belgium

17%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

Unibet (FR)Belgium+7.0%

Odds structure and TRJ by bookmaker: Pinnacle displays a 97.5% TRJ, indicating a moderate margin. The majority of bookmakers concentrate their TRJ between 95% and 98%, revealing certain market convergence. However, two players stand out: Matchbook (99.2%) and 1xBet (98.5%) show the tightest margins, while 888sport (91.6%) and William Hill (92.6%) operate with substantially wider margins. This disparity suggests differentiated strategies among operators.

Value analysis vs Pinnacle reference: Pinnacle's fair odd for Belgium is 5.98. Unibet (FR) offers 6.40 on this outcome, generating potential value of +7.0%, which represents a notable gap. By comparison, rival odds fall short: Betfair and Matchbook cap at 6.00, while Betclic (FR) offers 5.90. On Spain's win (1.69 Pinnacle fair odd), Matchbook barely matches this level at 1.69, unsurprisingly. The draw (4.13 fair odd) sees 1xBet offer 4.17, a marginal improvement of +1.0%.

Optimal TRJ and arithmetic opportunities: Combining the three best odds (1.69 Matchbook, 4.17 1xBet, 6.40 Unibet FR) produces an optimal TRJ of 101.2%, exceeding the break-even threshold. This indicator signals a favorable arithmetic configuration, though it is essential to note that odds evolve continuously and this opportunity must be verified live. The TRJ and surebet calculators on CalculaBet will confirm or refute this signal.

Practical recommendations: For bettors targeting Belgium, Unibet (FR) clearly offers the best compensation versus Pinnacle odds. For a multi-line approach, consolidating around Matchbook, 1xBet, and Unibet (FR) provides rational positioning. Caution remains essential: no odds configuration guarantees profit, and rapid line movement can erase identified advantages. Verify odds at the moment of betting.

Check for yourself

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Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.