← All analyses
Premier League

Tottenham vs Newcastle: Odds analysis and value hunting in the Premier League

Published on August 28, 2026 at 10:01 AM · 21 d ago · Kick-off : Aug 29, 06:30 PM

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United

Tottenham Hotspur hosts Newcastle United in a Premier League fixture where odds distribution reveals a highly compressed market. With an optimal TRJ of 99.8% by combining best offers, bookmakers show near-consensus pricing. Pinnacle, a reliable reference, sets fair odds at 2.39 for the home win, 3.92 for the draw, and 3.07 for the away win.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.2.313.802.9796.8%
Betfair2.343.853.1099.0%
Matchbook2.343.853.1099.0%
1xBet2.373.803.0398.5%
Unibet (SE)2.383.802.9597.8%
Unibet (NL)2.383.802.9597.8%
Marathon Bet2.333.742.9896.9%
BetOnline.ag2.273.733.0796.7%
BetAnything2.273.733.0796.7%
Coolbet2.283.753.0096.3%
Codere (IT)2.303.702.9095.3%
Betsson2.303.602.9595.1%
Nordic Bet2.303.602.9595.1%
LeoVegas (SE)2.323.652.8594.7%
Tipico2.203.703.0094.5%
Betclic (FR)2.233.702.9294.2%
Winamax (DE)2.253.752.8093.6%
GTbets2.223.612.9393.6%
William Hill2.253.602.8893.5%
Unibet (FR)2.253.602.8593.2%
888sport2.253.502.8892.8%
PMU (FR)2.283.552.8092.8%
Winamax (FR)2.203.702.8092.4%
MyBookie.ag2.243.552.8292.4%
Everygame2.203.602.8091.8%
Best odds2.383.853.1099.8%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)2.393.923.07

Best value bet

Newcastle United (win)at Betfair

3.10+1.1% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Tottenham Hotspur

42%

X

26%

Newcastle United

33%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

BetfairNewcastle United+1.1%
MatchbookNewcastle United+1.1%

Spreads and market consensus. The range of odds on the home win spans from 2.20 (Everygame, Winamax FR, Tipico) to 2.38 (Unibet SE, Unibet NL), an interval of just 0.18. For the draw, it ranges from 3.50 (888sport) to 3.92 (Pinnacle), and for Newcastle from 2.80 (Winamax FR, Everygame, PMU FR) to 3.10 (Betfair, Matchbook). This clustering around Pinnacle's reference—with an optimal TRJ of 99.8%—signals a mature, efficient market where structural value opportunities are scarce.

Value identification. Only two outcomes show measurable value potential: Newcastle United at Betfair and Matchbook, each offering 3.10 against a fair odd of 3.07, representing a +1.1% edge. This is marginal but stands as the sharpest in the market. Bets on Tottenham (best offered 2.38 vs fair 2.39) and the draw (best 3.92 = fair exactly) show no significant advantage. Most books report TRJs between 92 and 97%, with the most generous—Betfair and Matchbook at 99.0%—leading the efficiency table.

Bookmaker profiles. French platforms (Winamax, Betclic, Unibet FR, PMU) and US sportsbooks (MyBookie.ag, Everygame) show the tightest TRJs (91.8–94.2%), suggesting higher margins or lower liquidity. Conversely, Betfair and Matchbook—both market leaders at 99.0% TRJ—consistently capture best pricing, notably on Newcastle. 1xBet (98.5%) and Marathon Bet (96.9%) rank well too. For the home win, Unibet SE and Unibet NL offer 2.38 (second-best after Pinnacle's 2.39), confirming regional variation.

Recommendations and CalculaBet tools. Facing tight consensus, strategy must be selective. If targeting Newcastle at value, use Betfair or Matchbook (3.10), though the edge margin (+1.1%) remains light. CalculaBet's Value Bet calculator will help you quickly assess whether this 1.1% meets your personal ROI threshold. The 99.8% optimal TRJ shows no classic three-way arbitrage, but verify odds live as they shift rapidly. For bettors seeking measured exposure, this match offers balanced theoretical risk without major value. The TRJ calculator will validate margin levels for any combination you select.

Check for yourself

Refine the analysis with our calculators:

Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.