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Coupe du Monde

Turkey vs Paraguay: outsider quoted at slight value on Unibet

Published on June 19, 2026 at 08:32 PM · 19 h ago · Kick-off : Jun 20, 05:00 AM

Turkey vs Paraguay

Turkey and Paraguay face off on 20 June 2026 in the World Cup. Cote analysis reveals a compact market, with moderate spread between bookmakers and particular interest on the South American underdog's odds.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.2.083.463.9597.8%
Betfair2.123.504.0099.3%
Matchbook2.123.504.0099.3%
1xBet2.113.483.9298.4%
Unibet (NL)2.073.404.1097.9%
Unibet (SE)2.073.404.1097.9%
Coolbet2.103.453.9097.8%
Unibet (FR)2.053.503.9597.4%
PMU (FR)2.073.404.0097.3%
BetOnline.ag2.073.453.8997.1%
BetAnything2.073.453.8997.1%
Betsson2.123.403.7596.8%
Nordic Bet2.123.403.7596.8%
Betclic (FR)2.053.453.9096.7%
GTbets2.073.373.8296.0%
Winamax (DE)2.053.503.6595.5%
Codere (IT)2.063.403.7095.3%
LeoVegas (SE)2.023.303.9595.1%
Everygame2.053.353.7595.0%
Tipico1.973.503.8094.7%
MyBookie.ag2.043.363.7094.5%
Winamax (FR)2.003.503.6094.0%
William Hill2.003.203.7092.4%
888sport2.003.103.6090.9%
Best odds2.123.504.1099.9%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)2.133.544.04

Best value bet

Paraguay (win)at Unibet (NL)

4.10+1.5% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Turkey

47%

X

28%

Paraguay

25%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

Unibet (NL)Paraguay+1.5%
Unibet (SE)Paraguay+1.5%

Market equilibrium and margins. The optimal TRJ of 99.9% (combining best cotes: 2.12 on Turkey, 3.50 on draw, 4.10 on Paraguay) indicates a very tight and efficient cote portfolio. Bookmakers' overall margins remain within standard ranges, with Betfair and Matchbook showing the highest TRJ (99.3%), while 888sport (90.9%) and William Hill (92.4%) carry the steepest margins.

Value detected on Paraguay. Unibet (NL and SE) prices Paraguay's victory at 4.10, exceeding Pinnacle's fair odd of 4.04, generating potential 1.5% value. This overquoting is light but measurable: it reflects a probability slightly below the reference market. No other book offers a higher cote on this outcome.

Spread and best cotes per outcome. On Turkey, the range spans 1.97 (Tipico) to 2.12 (Betfair and Matchbook). On the draw, Winamax (FR) and others quote 3.50, the best available. The maximum of 4.10 (Unibet NL/SE) on Paraguay dominates competing offers (next ceiling: 4.00 at Betfair, PMU, Matchbook). This hierarchy confirms the precise opportunity on the underdog.

Operational recommendations. To capture best cotes, bettors can use the Value Bet calculator to confirm the 1.5% value at Unibet (NL/SE) on Paraguay, and the TRJ calculator to verify the 99.9% optimal. The Surebet calculator will allow live monitoring of micro-shifts; with TRJ so close to 100%, any movement in hours before kickoff could alter this setup. Paraguay's value remains moderate but real: it justifies targeted comparison rather than strong conviction.

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Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.