Pinnacle as benchmark
Pinnacle displays fair odds of 3.99 (Turkey), 4.38 (draw) and 1.92 (USA), after margin removal. This benchmark embodies the market's implicit probability. Comparing each bookmaker's odds against these levels identifies any meaningful gaps.
TRJ distribution and market coherence
TRJs range from 91.7% (William Hill) to 99.1% (Betfair). Betfair leads with the lowest TRJ, signalling competitive pricing. Conversely, William Hill (91.7%) and 888sport (91.8%) display higher margins. This variation is typical for a match of this scale. The optimal cumulative TRJ reaches 99.4% by combining the best odds: 4.00 on Turkey (Betfair), 4.36 on the draw (BetOnline.ag) and 1.90 on the USA (Betfair and others).
No notable value detected
No bookmaker offers odds materially higher than Pinnacle's fair odds. Gaps are marginal: for instance, Betfair at 4.00 versus the benchmark 3.99 on Turkey represents a negligible difference. On the draw, BetOnline.ag quotes 4.36 against Pinnacle's 4.38, a gap of -0.5%. Such discrepancies do not constitute sufficient value for a focused strategy. The market is efficient: implicit probability is well-integrated across all operators.
Practical guidance
Given this market consensus, CalculaBet's calculators (Value Bet, TRJ) help detect future shifts or minor opportunities. For this match, choosing Betfair (TRJ 99.1%) minimises overall margin exposure. Reminder: any wager carries risk, regardless of market coherence.