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Coupe du Monde

Uruguay vs Spain: Notable value on home side, optimal TRJ at 100.1%

Published on June 26, 2026 at 10:01 AM · 21 h ago · Kick-off : Jun 27, 02:00 AM

Uruguay vs Spain

The odds market on Uruguay–Spain in the World Cup (27 June 2026) shows notable dispersion among bookmakers. Pinnacle establishes reference fair odds at 6.48 for home, 4.05 for draw, and 1.67 for away. Yet several operators offer significantly higher odds, revealing interesting value opportunities, particularly on Uruguay's win.

Bookmaker1X2RTP
Pinnacleréf.6.293.931.6297.0%
Betfair7.003.901.6599.5%
Matchbook7.003.901.6599.5%
1xBet6.463.941.6598.5%
Coolbet6.703.901.6297.8%
Marathon Bet6.403.901.6397.5%
BetOnline.ag7.003.991.5797.0%
BetAnything7.003.991.5797.0%
Unibet (NL)6.753.851.6096.8%
Unibet (SE)6.753.851.6096.8%
Nordic Bet6.203.901.6296.6%
Betsson6.203.901.6296.6%
Unibet (FR)6.753.901.5896.4%
Betclic (FR)6.254.001.5996.3%
GTbets6.393.961.5896.0%
Everygame6.253.851.6095.7%
PMU (FR)6.253.851.6095.7%
Winamax (DE)6.003.951.6095.7%
Codere (IT)6.003.851.6195.5%
Winamax (FR)5.803.901.6094.9%
LeoVegas (SE)6.503.801.5794.9%
Tipico6.503.901.5594.8%
MyBookie.ag6.003.851.5794.0%
William Hill5.803.601.6093.0%
888sport5.503.601.5791.2%
Best odds7.004.001.65100.1%
Fair odds (Pinnacle)6.484.051.67

Best value bet

Uruguay (win)at BetOnline.ag

7.00+8.0% vs Pinnacle

Implied probabilities (Pinnacle, no margin)

Uruguay

15%

X

25%

Spain

60%

Value signals vs Pinnacle

Books offering odds above the Pinnacle reference (potential value):

BetOnline.agUruguay+8.0%
BetfairUruguay+8.0%
BetAnythingUruguay+8.0%
MatchbookUruguay+8.0%
Unibet (NL)Uruguay+4.1%
Unibet (SE)Uruguay+4.1%
Unibet (FR)Uruguay+4.1%
CoolbetUruguay+3.3%

Value on home side (Uruguay). BetOnline.ag, Betfair, BetAnything, and Matchbook all offer 7.00 on Uruguay's win, representing +8.0% above Pinnacle's fair odd (6.48). This notable value suggests these bookmakers estimate an implicit probability lower than the reference market. Unibet NL and SE variants at 6.75 also provide moderate value of +4.1%, confirming a trend among some operators to overrate the home side.

TRJ and margin dispersion. Optimal TRJ reaches 100.1% by combining best odds (7.00 on 1, 4.00 on draw with Betclic FR, 1.65 on 2), a classic signal of a possible micro-arbitrage opportunity. However, this figure must be verified live: odds move rapidly and settlement delays between bookmakers may erase the edge. For comparison, Betfair and Matchbook show 99.5% TRJ, while 888sport and William Hill are noticeably more generous at 91.2% and 93.0% respectively, though without value on our target outcome.

Bookmaker profile. Peer-to-peer platforms (Betfair, Matchbook) and major online operators (BetOnline.ag) offer the best odds on Uruguay, typical of channels where price competition is fiercer. French bookmakers (Winamax FR at 5.80, 888sport at 5.50) lag behind, reflecting tighter commercial margins. Pinnacle, the reference for pricing algorithms, naturally positions itself between these extremes.

Recommendation for serious bettors. If you consider backing Uruguay, BetOnline.ag, Betfair, BetAnything, or Matchbook maximize your odds at 7.00, equating to +8.0% potential value versus the reference. To explore a surebet, use CalculaBet's TRJ calculator with live odds: a confirmed TRJ > 100% offers theoretical coverage. Stay vigilant: this anomaly may correct quickly. For other outcomes, the draw at 4.00 (Betclic FR) and Spain at 1.65 (Betfair, Matchbook) are best odds, but without notable value signal.

Check for yourself

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Odds change constantly. The fair odd is the market probability after removing the margin, not a certainty. Always check live before betting.